Tragédie malého státu :geostrategické perspektivy Česka podle ofenzivního neorealismu

Abstract

The article introduces theoretically deduced scenarios as an interesting method promising an enhanced practical relevance for social geography. The importance of scenarios is given by their affinity to planning, decision-making and their central position in countless public debates. The article illustrates the promises and deficiencies of scenario-building efforts by constructing scenarios of the Czech geopolitical future. The scenarios, which are based on the theory of offensive neorealism, show that in the case of U.S. withdrawal from Europe, Czechia will face a highly competitive and dangerous geopolitical environment. Unfortunately, if China continues to grow, such a future seems to be (according to the theory) inevitable. Offensive neorealism allows to identify the crucial factors of Czechia’s current security situation and to outline the main contours of its geopolitical future. As a result, the theory provides an interesting springboard for a theoretical and application development of classical geopolitics.