Black Swans in the Black Sea: Scenarios for the Future of NATO-Russia Relations in the Black Sea Region.

Abstract

This research paper demonstrates the value of scenario analysis for the field of Security Studies, by developing an easy-to-replicate framework for "Intuitive Logics" scenario building and applying it to the case of NATO-Russia relations in the Black Sea region. While scenarios are frequently used as strategic management and planning tools in the corporate and public sector, they represent a relatively new addition to the methodological toolkit of Security Studies. Based on the example of the conflict between NATO and Russia in the Black Sea region, this paper shows how scenario analysis can foster a structured and multifaceted understanding of conflict constellations. To this end, this paper compiles a list of "drivers of change" and external forces that have the potential to impact NATO-Russia relations in the next ten to fifteen years, identifies the "critical uncertainties," and develops four different scenario narratives.