Cyber Warning Intelligence: Enhancing Predictive Capabilities in Cyberspace. A Comparative Study of the American and Italian Cases

Abstract

Cyber Warning Intelligence: Enhancing Predictive Capabilities in Cyberspace. A Comparative Study of the American and Italian Cases July 2023 University of Glasgow: 2686635S University of Trento: 233481 Charles University: 722530 Presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of International Master in Security, Intelligence and Strategic Studies Word count: 24141 Supervisor: Prof. doc. Dr. Vit Stritecky, M.Phil., Ph.D. Date of Submission: 26/07/2023 Abstract The present research project addresses the question of how cybersecurity strategies currently adopted by public and private major organisations might be revised in light of a constantly evolving and increasingly sophisticated cyber threat ecosystem that demands a radical paradigm shift not towards the enhancement of early detection of and reaction to cyber incidents but towards the acquisition of capabilities to forecast them. More specifically, the author revives the Cold War-era concept and practices of indications and warning (I&W) intelligence and attempts to contribute to that line of academic work that has more recently applied them to the cybersecurity context. It is argued that integrating I&W intelligence methodologies within one's extant cybersecurity structures is essential to limit one's exposure to cyber risks and...