The Impact of Oil Prices on Macroeconomic Indicators in Azerbaijan and Georgia

Abstract

Using a multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) approach, this paper investigates the relationships between oil price and macroeconomic indicators of closely interrelated developing economies of oil exporting Azerbaijan and oil importing Georgia based on monthly time series from January 2001 to November 2012. The model is estimated for each country separately and the results are object for comparison. The empirical evidence suggests that oil price has significant effects on macroeconomy in both countries. In particular, these effects are positive for all 3 macroeconomic variables on the example of Azerbaijan. On the example of Georgia, these effects are positive for GDP and inflation rate, and, negative for exchange rate. On the other hand, macroeconomic indicators of Azerbaijan fail to affect oil price level.