Markovovy řetězce vyšších řádů a jejich aplikace v ekonometrii

Abstract

In this paper, we generalize Raftery's model of Markov chain to a higher-order multivariate Markov chain model. This model is more suitable for practical applications because of smaller number of independent parameters. We propose a method of estimation of parameters of the model and apply it to the Credit risk measuring of a portfolio. We compute Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall in this portfolio. Theoretical results are applied to real data.